| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on April 15, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility and climate-driven economic fluctuations.
Mid-April in New York City marks the transition from early spring to more stable seasonal temperatures. Historical data for this date shows significant variance, influenced by the presence of cold fronts from the north or warm maritime air masses from the Atlantic. Meteorologists analyze long-range climatological patterns to estimate the range of likely minimums for this specific mid-spring date.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of weather outcomes, reflecting the current consensus among participants based on historical climate data and long-range seasonal forecasts.
The official temperature is determined by the data recorded at the primary NWS weather station for Central Park, New York City.
The lowest temperature is defined as the minimum value recorded during the 24-hour calendar day of April 15, 2026, as reported by official weather authorities.
In the event of a station outage, the market will rely on verified data from the National Weather Service or the designated backup reporting station as specified in the event rules.
April 15th falls during a period of high variability in NYC, where the city can experience anything from freezing temperatures to early summer-like warmth, making it a focal point for seasonal weather analysis.
No, this market tracks the actual recorded air temperature, not wind chill or subjective thermal sensation, to ensure objective and verifiable data measurement.