| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 14° to 15° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 16° to 17° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 18° to 19° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° to 21° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on April 7, 2026, based on standardized meteorological reporting. It serves as a gauge for climate variability and regional weather forecasting precision.
April in Minneapolis is a transitional period characterized by significant temperature volatility as the region moves from late winter into spring. Historical data shows that daily minimums during early April can fluctuate drastically depending on the arrival of arctic air masses or early-season warm fronts. Participants must account for the high standard deviation typical of mid-continent spring weather patterns.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of meteorological models and historical climate norms for early April in the Upper Midwest.
The official lowest temperature is typically determined by data recorded at the Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport station by the National Weather Service.
Extreme weather, including blizzards or unseasonable heat, will be reflected in the final recorded temperature regardless of whether the conditions deviate significantly from the historical average.
The market relies on official readings from the primary monitoring station, which may reflect the specific microclimate of the airport area rather than the entirety of the Minneapolis metropolitan region.
The market tracks the lowest temperature recorded during the calendar day of April 7, 2026, consistent with standard meteorological reporting practices.
Early April in Minnesota is famously unpredictable, as it sits at the threshold where the ground begins to thaw and the jet stream often shifts, creating a high probability for large temperature swings.