| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° to 21° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22° to 23° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on April 6, 2026. It serves as a localized hedge or speculative instrument for weather-related volatility in the Upper Midwest.
April in Minneapolis is a transitional period characterized by significant climatic variability as the region shifts from winter to spring. Historical data shows that daily lows during early April can range from freezing temperatures typical of late winter to milder conditions driven by early-season warm fronts. Meteorological records from the Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport are typically used as the official benchmark for these climate observations.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather models and historical climate averages, with higher values shifting as forecasts for April 2026 become more precise.
Official temperature data is typically derived from measurements recorded at the Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport (KMSP) weather station.
Spring is a period of high instability; the collision of cold arctic air masses and warming southern air frequently leads to unpredictable temperature swings.
The market resolves based on the official temperature reading provided by the primary meteorological data source, regardless of whether it sets a record.
This market tracks ambient air temperature as recorded by standard weather station thermometers, not the 'feels-like' wind chill index.
The lowest temperature is defined as the minimum reading recorded during the 24-hour period of April 6, 2026, usually occurring during the early morning hours.