| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Minneapolis on April 21, 2026. Weather derivatives like this allow participants to hedge against or speculate on climate variability in the Upper Midwest.
April in Minneapolis is a transitional period characterized by significant temperature volatility as the region shifts from late-winter cold snaps to spring warming. Historical data indicates that while average lows typically climb above freezing by late April, cold fronts originating from Canada can still trigger sub-freezing temperatures.
Market prices represent the aggregate collective forecast for the specific temperature range, reflecting expert consensus on long-range seasonal climate trends.
Data is sourced from the official National Weather Service (NWS) observation station at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP).
No, the market strictly concerns the lowest temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar day of April 21, 2026, local time.
In the event of an official station closure, market resolution typically defaults to the successor reporting station designated by the NWS or the specified fallback data source.
The daily minimum temperature in Minneapolis during April usually occurs shortly before or around sunrise, as the ground loses heat throughout the night.
Historical averages provide a baseline, but annual weather is subject to short-term atmospheric dynamics, making deviations from the mean common in the spring.