| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded in Minneapolis on April 16, 2026. These outcomes provide a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related risks or speculating on specific climatic conditions in the Upper Midwest.
April in Minneapolis is a transitional month characterized by significant volatility as the region moves from late winter to early spring. Historical data indicates that daily minimums during mid-April can range from sub-freezing levels to moderate spring temperatures, depending on the movement of Arctic air masses versus warm fronts from the south. The National Weather Service (NWS) data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport serves as the official reference point for settling these outcomes.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of regional weather patterns, where current sentiment aggregates meteorological forecasts and historical climate averages into a single actionable value.
The market will settle based on the official daily minimum temperature recorded at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport by the National Weather Service.
April represents a period of atmospheric instability in the Midwest, where the collision of lingering cold air from Canada and rising seasonal heat often creates wide temperature swings.
No, this market relies on the actual dry-bulb air temperature recorded by meteorological sensors, not the perceived temperature inclusive of wind chill.
The market settles strictly based on the official reported minimum temperature, regardless of whether the event is categorized as an anomaly or within historical norms.
The 'lowest temperature' refers to the minimum value recorded during the 24-hour period of April 16, 2026, as defined by the local reporting station.