| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Minneapolis on April 15, 2026. It provides a way to hedge against or speculate on meteorological variability in the Upper Midwest during the spring transition.
Mid-April in Minneapolis is a period of high climate volatility, characterized by the lingering effects of winter and the onset of spring. Historically, temperatures on this date can fluctuate significantly depending on the timing of polar air masses versus early-season warm fronts. Data for this market is typically derived from the official National Weather Service observation station at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather patterns, where participants weigh historical meteorological averages against long-range climate models.
The market relies on the official record from the National Weather Service station located at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP).
No, this market specifically tracks the ambient air temperature recorded as the daily minimum, not the 'feels-like' temperature or wind chill.
The official reading provided by the National Weather Service for that calendar day will serve as the final settlement value, regardless of the severity of the weather conditions.
Mid-April is a transitional time where temperatures are highly sensitive to wind direction; winds from the north can bring residual arctic air, while southern flows can cause temperatures to spike rapidly.
The daily minimum is the lowest temperature recorded during the 24-hour period of the calendar day, which most often occurs in the early morning hours before sunrise.