| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 99% | 96¢ | 99¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $908 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Miami on March 9, 2026 will be and why participants expect a particular temperature range. It matters because overnight lows affect energy demand, public-safety planning, and local economic activity and because markets aggregate diverse meteorological expectations into a single signal.
Miami has a subtropical climate where early March is a transitional period: nights can be mild but are occasionally influenced by cold frontal passages or continental air masses. Seasonal drivers (ENSO phase, large-scale blocking) and local factors (coastal moderation and urban heat island) create the historical variability that underpins market views for this date.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective beliefs about which of the six contract buckets will contain the observed minimum temperature; higher prices indicate stronger market conviction but are not guarantees. Always check the contract’s settlement rules to understand exactly how observed temperatures map to outcomes and when the official value is sourced.
The contract will settle to the authoritative observing site or dataset specified in the exchange’s settlement rules; exchanges typically rely on the National Weather Service daily summary for the official Miami station (the contract text names the exact station). Confirm the contract text to see the precise source used for settlement.
Settlement timing follows the exchange’s published rules; typically settlement occurs after the official daily climate summary for the date has been posted by the designated authority. Check the contract for the exact settlement time and any allowable window for reporting or corrections.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature bucket or exact value range described in the market contract. Review the outcome labels and the contract’s bin boundaries to see which observed temperatures fall into which outcome and to learn how edge cases are handled.
Official temperature observations sometimes undergo post-event quality control and adjustments. The exchange’s settlement rules specify whether preliminary or final adjusted values are used; the outcome will be determined by the dataset the contract designates as authoritative.
Follow short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service (Miami office), METAR observations at the designated station (e.g., MIA), forecast model guidance (GFS, ECMWF), upper-air charts and frontal forecasts, and local forecast discussions about radiational cooling or marine influences—these elements most directly affect overnight minimums.