| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or above | 96% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $814 | Trade → |
This market asks which recorded air temperature will be the lowest in Miami on March 8, 2026; it matters for traders who want to speculate on short-term weather extremes and for anyone tracking climate variability. Outcomes translate observed meteorological measurements into discrete settlement categories.
Miami has a subtropical maritime climate, so overnight lows in early March are typically mild compared with interior U.S. locations; however, synoptic-scale cold fronts or unusual radiational cooling events can produce lower-than-typical minima. Historical context and recent seasonal patterns (e.g., whether the region is under a cool or warm anomaly) provide useful background for interpreting market moves.
Market prices reflect collective expectation about which outcome bin the official minimum temperature will fall into; interpret prices as relative market sentiment about competing ranges rather than fixed forecasts from a single weather model.
Settlement uses the official reading specified in the event contract—typically the designated NOAA/NWS observing station for the Miami metro area (as named on the event page). Traders should check the event contract for the exact station identifier and data source.
The event follows the measurement window defined in the contract (usually the local civil date from 00:00 to 23:59 local time for March 8, 2026). Confirm the contract for the precise timezone and any special timing rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a temperature range or specific bins listed on the event page; settlement compares the observed official minimum to those bin boundaries. Review the outcome labels and the contract's settlement rules for tie-breaking and boundary inclusion (e.g., whether endpoints are inclusive).
Watch forecasts for approaching cold fronts, clear vs. cloudy overnight trends, modeled low-level humidity and wind forecasts, and any mesoscale features (sea-breeze interactions, localized showers) that can alter nocturnal cooling in the Miami area.
March is a transitional month with generally mild nights in Miami; extreme overnight lows are relatively uncommon compared with inland Florida or continental locations. Traders should consider recent weekly trends, seasonal anomalies, and precedent events (e.g., rare cold snaps) when assessing how atypical a low would be.