| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or above | 99% | 87¢ | 99¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 15% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $764 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 7, 2026. It matters for participants hedging or speculating on short‑term weather variability and for understanding how forecasts and observations translate into market prices.
Miami in early March is typically in a transitional season: mild to warm conditions are common but occasional cold frontal passages from the continental U.S. can push temperatures downward. Local climatology, recent synoptic patterns, and sea surface temperatures all shape the expected range of minima for a single calendar day.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregated beliefs about which temperature range will be the lowest reading on that date and will move as new model runs and observations arrive; settlement is determined by the contract’s official observation, not by trader forecasts.
The exchange’s contract specifies the official observation site and data source; settlement is based on that designated station’s observed values (often an NWS/ASOS station). Consult the contract terms to see the exact station and dataset used for this market.
The contract defines the precise local‑time window used for the calendar date (commonly 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time at the official station). Settlement uses the lowest recorded value within that defined window.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature ranges listed in the market posting; after the official lowest temperature is published for the designated station and time window, the single outcome whose range contains that observed minimum is declared the winner.
Settlement is determined solely by the observed data from the designated official station per the contract. Forecasts and model runs influence trading but are not used for final resolution.
The exchange will follow its rules if the official observation is missing, affected by instrument malfunction, station relocation, or documented metadata issues; in such cases the exchange will announce alternative data sources or void/adjust settlement according to its published procedures.