| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or above | 72% | 67¢ | 74¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 31% | 25¢ | 31¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $826 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature range will contain Miami's lowest observed temperature on March 6, 2026; it matters because traders use weather outcomes to hedge weather-sensitive activity and to express expectations about short-term climate variability. The market has six discrete outcomes that cover mutually exclusive temperature ranges for that date.
Miami's early March climate is usually mild, but occasional cold-air intrusions or anomalous synoptic patterns can produce lower-than-normal nighttime lows. Settlement depends on an official observational source specified in the contract, and short-term forecasts, model guidance, and recent trends all influence expectations heading into the day.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of participants and will move as new forecast data, observations, and analysis become available; they are a real-time signal rather than a fixed prediction. To interpret odds here, treat them as indicators of the market's best estimate based on available information at any moment.
Settlement will use the official temperature observation source specified in the market's contract (typically an NWS/NOAA or other designated official station for Miami); the market description names the data provider and station used to determine the final settled value.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range listed in the market contract; the outcome whose range contains the recorded lowest temperature for the calendar date in local time is declared the winning outcome at settlement.
Settlement typically occurs after the official daily summary from the designated data provider is published and verified by the exchange; timing can vary but is governed by the settlement rules in the market contract, which traders should consult for specifics.
The geographic point used for settlement is the specific station or dataset named in the contract; if nearby stations differ, the market follows the predetermined official source and its recorded value, with any ambiguity resolved according to the contract's dispute and data-source rules.
Consider typical early-March climatology for Miami (average lows and variability), the frequency of late-winter cold-air intrusions for the region, and recent short-term trends; combine that climatological context with current model guidance and observations to form an expectation for the event.