| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or above | 90% | 85¢ | 89¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 15% | 7¢ | 16¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami will be on March 5, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-interested users because temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and local planning.
Miami sits on the southeastern U.S. coast with a subtropical climate, so early March is typically mild but can be modulated by passing cold fronts or atypical synoptic patterns. Short-term variability (cold fronts, cloud cover, wind shifts, and sea-surface temperatures) often determines whether a particular day is notably cooler or closer to seasonal normals.
Market prices reflect the crowd-sourced, real-time consensus about which temperature range will be the day’s minimum; prices move as new weather model runs and observations arrive and should be read as a snapshot of collective expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement will use the official meteorological observation specified in the market's contract rules — typically the minimum air temperature recorded by the designated reporting station for Miami on that calendar date; consult the market description on the trading platform for the named station and measurement convention.
The six outcomes correspond to contiguous temperature ranges (bins) that together cover the plausible range of minimums; after the official minimum is determined, the value is matched to the bin boundaries defined in the contract to determine which outcome settles.
The market’s close time is listed as TBD in this summary; trading platforms often close markets shortly before the observation period or at a pre-specified settlement cutoff — check the live market page for the definitive trading deadline.
New runs of global and regional weather models, ensemble spread updates, shifts in forecasted frontal timing, changes in expected cloud cover or precipitation, and near-term observations (surface stations and radiosondes) can all move market prices as participants update expectations.
Dispute resolution and any use of alternate data sources follow the platform's settlement rules: typically the market relies on the named official observing network and the platform’s stated verification and appeal procedures; consult the market’s rulebook or support channel for the precise process.