| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 98% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $908 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $563 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 4, 2026 will be; it matters to traders and stakeholders who want to hedge or gauge forecasts for weather-sensitive decisions.
The contract is listed on KALSHI with six discrete outcomes and has had $17,329 in total volume traded so far; the market close time is currently TBD. Miami normally has mild winters but can experience brief cool spells from continental cold fronts or persistent cloud cover, so early-March temperatures can be variable depending on large-scale patterns.
Market prices represent the collective, continuously updated assessment of which temperature outcome is most likely based on incoming model runs and observations; they function as a real-time signal of forecast confidence rather than a deterministic prediction.
There are six mutually exclusive outcomes defined by temperature intervals in the contract; consult the KALSHI contract page for the exact bin breakpoints used to categorize the lowest temperature on Mar 4, 2026.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement will occur after the official daily observation for Mar 4, 2026 is published by the designated observing authority—check the exchange's settlement rules and announcements for the exact timing.
The outcome is determined by the minimum air temperature reported by the official observing site used by the contract (the National Weather Service/official Miami station) for the 24-hour local date of Mar 4, 2026, using standard instrumentation and reporting/rounding conventions.
Short- and medium-range model updates (global and ensemble runs), local NWS forecasts, radar/satellite observations, and in-situ temperature reports all drive price changes as traders incorporate new information about expected overnight lows.
Participants include retail traders, professional weather traders, meteorologists, and businesses with weather exposure (events, energy, transportation). The market provides a continuous, crowd-sourced signal of forecast consensus that can inform operational or hedging decisions.