| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 2% | 2¢ | 9¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the recorded lowest temperature in Miami on March 3, 2026. It matters because traders use evolving weather information to express views on short-term temperature outcomes and because the result is a concrete, verifiable meteorological observation.
Miami's early March temperatures are shaped by a mix of subtropical maritime influence and episodic mid-latitude cold-frontal intrusions; seasonal averages are typically moderate but variability can occur from synoptic-scale patterns. Local factors such as proximity to the Atlantic, urban heat island effects, and day-to-day cloud cover or wind changes can shift the overnight minimum by several degrees compared with model guidance.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature bucket the official observation will fall into; interpret changes as shifts in trader consensus driven by new forecasts and observations rather than as fixed predictions.
The market settles to the official minimum temperature reported for the designated Miami observation site specified on the event page (check the event description for the exact station and measurement convention); the recorded lowest hourly or continuous 2‑meter air temperature for the date will be used for settlement.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; final settlement occurs after the official daily observations for March 3 are released by the reporting station and verified according to the exchange's settlement rules — check the exchange's settlement policy for timing details once the station's data become available.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific, non-overlapping temperature range (bucket) defined on the event page; the settlement outcome is the bucket that contains the official recorded lowest temperature for March 3 at the named station.
Use historical distributions and recent climatology to understand typical variability and the frequency of colder-than-average nights, but also weigh short-term forecast updates — climatology provides context for how unusual a given low would be, while model guidance and observations determine the near-term probability of extremes.
Key price drivers include new numerical weather model runs and ensemble spreads (e.g., major model shifts in the timing/intensity of a cold front), real-time observations (nearby station temperatures and surface analyses), changes in forecast cloud cover/wind projections, and any updates to the official reporting station or measurement protocol.