| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest recorded air temperature in Miami will be on March 29, 2026; it matters because overnight lows influence energy demand, travel impacts, and local public-health and infrastructure planning.
Miami has a subtropical climate so March lows are typically mild, but synoptic cold fronts, local coastal effects, and short-term variability can produce cooler-than-average nights. Long-term warming trends shift the baseline upward, but day-to-day weather variability and the exact measurement location still drive the realized low on any given date.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of participants about which outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations change; use them as a real-time indicator of market expectations rather than a guarantee of the eventual observation.
The exchange will specify the official reporting station and dataset on the event page; common sources are National Weather Service/NOAA stations such as the ASOS at Miami International Airport (MIA) or another designated NOAA-authorized observing site—check the event’s settlement/source field for the exact choice.
Most temperature markets use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the designated station, but you should confirm the precise window and time standard (local vs. UTC) on the event’s description and settlement rules.
Outcome labels and boundaries (e.g., specific temperature ranges or bins) are listed on the event page; the outcome that matches the official recorded minimum at the specified station and within the stated time window will be selected for settlement per the exchange’s rules.
Settlement follows KALSHI’s published fallback procedures: they typically rely on official archives and may use alternate nearby stations or a predefined dispute-resolution process if primary data are unavailable—consult the event’s settlement rules for exact procedures.
Watch short-range numerical weather prediction guidance (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), National Weather Service forecasts and discussions for Miami, surface observations, cloud/precipitation trends, and any synoptic-scale signals (frontal passages or tropical influences) that could alter overnight cooling potential.