| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the lowest recorded in Miami on March 28, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect weather patterns that affect travel, energy demand, and local planning.
Miami has a subtropical maritime climate where late-March lows are usually mild but can be pushed lower by passing cold fronts or remaining warm by offshore flow and warm sea surface temperatures. Weather variability around this date is driven by synoptic-scale features (frontal passages, upper-level troughs) and seasonal transition dynamics rather than long-term climate trends alone.
Market prices/odds represent traders' aggregated expectations about which discrete temperature outcome will occur; use them as a real-time signal of how participants weight the plausible forecasts, observational uncertainty, and settlement rules rather than as absolute measurements.
Settlement typically uses the official 24-hour local calendar day for the specified date at the designated observation station (local 00:00 to 23:59), but you should consult the market's settlement rules on the exchange page for the precise start/end times and time zone used.
The market will settle based on the official data source identified in the event's settlement terms. Exchanges commonly reference NWS/NOAA daily observations from the designated Miami official station; check the event description for the exact station or dataset named for this contract.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range listed in the market contract. The exchange's settlement policy governs ties, missing, or questionable data—typically using the primary dataset, then a published fallback procedure if the primary record is unavailable—so review those rules before trading.
The event shows 'Closes: TBD'; exchanges usually set a cutoff before the observation period begins so new positions cannot be established once the outcome period is underway. Confirm the exact market close time on the platform to know when trading and order changes will be allowed.
Late March in Miami is during the seasonal transition to warmer conditions, so typical overnight lows are relatively mild; however, occasional cool air intrusions from cold fronts can lower minimums for brief periods. Use recent weather model runs, synoptic forecasts, and the long-term climatological patterns for late March to inform expectations.