| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the lowest temperature recorded in Miami on March 27, 2026. It matters to traders and weather observers because it aggregates expectations about short‑term weather conditions in a populated, climate‑sensitive location.
Late March is a transitional month for South Florida when mild cool fronts can temporarily lower overnight temperatures, while maritime air and urban heat island effects tend to keep nights warm. Seasonal climate drivers (e.g., the state of the subtropical jet, tropical moisture, and any ongoing ENSO phase) plus synoptic-scale cold fronts determine whether an anomalously cool night occurs. Local forecasts and model runs in the 48–72 hours before the date typically provide the strongest actionable information.
Market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations about which temperature range will be realized; they update as new meteorological data and forecasts arrive and as market participants trade.
Settlement will use the official temperature measurement and station specified in the market’s settlement rules on the KALSHI market page; that document defines the observing network, measurement standard (air temperature shelter and height), and time window used for determining the minimum.
The market’s settlement rules on the event page specify the exact observation period (for example, a local calendar day or a specified 24‑hour window); check that text because some markets use local midnight‑to‑midnight and others use an observing‑station reporting schedule.
This market is divided into six mutually exclusive outcomes that correspond to temperature ranges or categories defined on the market page; review the outcome labels there to see the exact bins used for settlement.
The market’s settlement rules designate the authoritative source (often a specific National Weather Service or ASOS station, or an official archived dataset); that designated source controls settlement even if nearby stations report different values.
Focus on forecast changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, wind direction, and dew point in the 24–72 hours before the date, compare model ensembles and local NWS statements for confidence, and be aware that new observations (radiosonde, surface analyses) can shift expectations quickly as the event approaches.