| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several temperature outcomes will be the recorded lowest air temperature in Miami on March 26, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather risk and for anyone tracking short-term climate variability. The outcome provides a specific, observable metric tied to official meteorological observations.
Miami has a subtropical climate, so late-March nights are typically mild but can vary with passing cold fronts, cloud cover, and sea-surface temperatures. Nighttime minima are influenced by synoptic weather patterns and local factors like urban heat island effects; longer-term warming trends have raised typical nighttime temperatures over recent decades. Historical daily records and official station data provide the baseline for comparing this event's outcome.
Market odds reflect the collective view of traders about which temperature range will be the lowest observed on that date and will move as forecasts and observations change. To interpret prices, compare them to current meteorological forecasts and the market’s stated resolution rules rather than treating them as fixed scientific estimates.
The contract’s official resolution source, as listed on the market page, specifies the exact observing station or agency (for example, a designated NWS/NOAA station or automated station). Check the event’s resolution terms to see the named source that will be used for settlement.
The market’s resolution language defines the time window (commonly the local calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59:59 at the specified station’s local time or an explicitly stated UTC range). Refer to the event’s rules to confirm which daily convention is used.
Each outcome corresponds to the temperature range or discrete value shown on the market page; the resolution terms state the measurement units (e.g., Fahrenheit or Celsius) and any rounding or truncation rules applied to the official observation.
Tie-breakers and adjudication procedures are specified in the event’s resolution rules—common approaches include using the official reported value as recorded by the named station or following the primary data provider’s summary report; consult the market’s dispute and resolution section for exact procedures.
Settlement typically occurs after the designated data provider publishes the official daily summary and any adjudication window closes; the exact timeline for posting results and settling contracts is given in the event’s terms, so check those details on the market page.