| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several temperature ranges will contain Miami’s lowest observed temperature on March 25, 2026. It matters to traders tracking short-term weather risk and to anyone with temperature-sensitive plans or operations in South Florida.
Miami sits in a subtropical coastal zone where overnight lows in late March are usually moderate but can be pushed lower by continental cold fronts or intrusions. Long-term warming has raised average nights, but synoptic variability (fronts, upper‑level troughs) can still produce unusually cool or mild nights on a given date. The event lists six discrete outcomes; consult the contract for exact bin boundaries and the official measurement source.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about meteorological conditions and official observations, and they can change rapidly as forecasts update. Treat prices as a real‑time signal, not a guarantee, and verify settlement rules and the official observation source before trading.
The winning outcome will be the discrete temperature range that contains the official lowest air temperature reported for Miami on the date in question, as measured at the observing site and data source specified in the event’s contract; check the event rules for the exact station and reporting procedure.
The event page currently shows the market close as TBD; settlement will occur after the official observational record for March 25, 2026 is available from the contract’s specified source—consult the event page for updates on final close and settlement timing.
Most temperature markets use the local calendar day or a clearly defined 24‑hour window; the lowest temperature usually occurs near local sunrise, so the exact observation window and time standard (local vs UTC) listed in the contract matter—verify those details on the event page.
Late‑March lows in Miami are typically within a relatively narrow subtropical band, but historical records show occasional colder nights during strong cold intrusions; use climatology to set baseline expectations but rely on current synoptic forecasts for short‑term deviations.
Key sources include the National Weather Service observations and forecasts for Miami, NOAA/NCEP model guidance and ensembles, high‑resolution regional models, surface observation networks near the official station, and real‑time satellite and radar analyses—monitor both deterministic and ensemble products for timing of fronts and cloud cover.