| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several defined ranges will contain the lowest temperature recorded in Miami on March 24, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect synoptic weather patterns and can affect energy demand, travel, and local planning.
Late March in Miami sits in a transitional season where mild, subtropical conditions dominate but occasional continental cold fronts can produce cooler-than-normal nights. Historic records show that truly cold extremes are uncommon in Miami, so the range of plausible outcomes is shaped by the presence or absence of a passing cold front and the exact observing site used for the official measurement.
Market prices summarize traders’ views about the likely outcome given available forecasts and information; they are dynamic and update as new model runs, observations, and official definitions become available. For final resolution, always consult the event’s posted rules to see which reporting station and data source will be used.
The event’s resolution rules on the trading platform specify the official reporting station and data source (for example, a designated NOAA/NWS station or ASOS/AWOS) — check the event page to confirm which station and dataset will be used for final determination.
The platform lists the trading close time and the resolution window on the event page; currently the close is listed as TBD, and final determination will follow the timing and data-sourcing rules posted with the event.
As new model runs and observations arrive in the 48–72 hours before the date, forecasts for nighttime lows can change due to shifts in frontal timing, cloud cover, or wind — traders update positions to reflect improved information from operational models and ensemble spreads.
The event rules define the exact measurement window (for example, minimum over the local calendar date or a specific hourly observation set); consult the event’s resolution criteria to know which timing convention applies.
Account for whether the official site is urban/airport/coastal, since urban heat island effects, nearby water, and siting (exposure, surface type) can raise or lower observed minima relative to nearby neighborhoods; use the station identified in the rules as the basis for your assessment.