| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami will be on March 23, 2026; it matters because daily low temperatures affect energy demand, public safety, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions. Traders use meteorological information to express expectations about that single-day observation.
Miami's daily temperatures are driven by interactions between large-scale synoptic patterns and local factors like sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Historical March conditions tend to be mild, but occasional late-season cold intrusions from the continental U.S. can produce unusually cool nights. Because this is a single-day outcome, short-term forecasts and model runs in the days leading up to March 23 will typically be the most informative.
Market odds on this event represent collective expectations about which discrete temperature outcome will be observed on that date; interpret them as aggregated market views rather than definitive forecasts. For actionable weather planning, combine market signals with official meteorological forecasts and observed conditions as the date approaches.
The market will settle based on the official data source and station specified in the contract terms; that typically means a National Weather Service or other designated official station's observation—check the market rules to see the exact source and station used for settlement.
It generally refers to the minimum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the specified official observation site, measured following standard meteorological procedures (standard sensor height and instrument type); review the contract’s definitions for precise measurement conventions.
Settlement fallback procedures are governed by the market’s rules; common approaches include using an alternative nearby official station or the first valid observation after review—consult the event's settlement policy for the exact contingency steps.
Short-range forecasts (0–3 days) tend to be the most reliable for a single-night low because they capture the timing of fronts and local mesoscale effects; beyond a week, forecast uncertainty rises sharply, so expect increasing spread in model guidance the earlier you look.
Monitor operational global and regional models (e.g., major deterministic and ensemble guidance), National Weather Service forecast products, local airport METARs/AWOS observations, and satellite/radar trends for fronts, cloud cover, and winds—changes in those fields in the 48–72 hours before the date will most strongly influence the overnight low.