| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be recorded as the lowest temperature in Miami on March 22, 2026, and matters to traders, weather observers, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability in South Florida.
Miami has a warm, maritime climate where late-winter to early-spring temperatures are influenced by tropical air masses, cold fronts, and oceanic conditions. Seasonal transitions, the position of the jet stream, and occasional strong frontal passages can produce the range of possible low temperatures on a given date.
Market odds reflect the consensus view of traders and will change as new forecasts, observations, and model runs become available; interpret them as a real-time aggregation of expectations rather than a fixed prediction.
The market's official resolution text on Kalshi specifies the authoritative data source and station; check that settlement clause on the market page to see whether a specific NWS/NOAA station, airport observation, or other official dataset will be used.
The contract resolution rules define the exact time window (for example, a calendar date in local time or a 24‑hour observation period); confirm the market's resolution language on Kalshi to know the precise measurement window used for settlement.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific, mutually exclusive temperature range or bucket; view the labels on the market page to see the exact numeric boundaries for each outcome.
Prices generally respond to synoptic signals once model agreement increases and forecasters identify a credible cold- or warm-air intrusion, often within the week or so before the date; short-term observations (satellite, radar, and model runs) can move the market as the event approaches.
Settlement fallback procedures should be spelled out in the market's resolution rules; common approaches include using an alternate official station, a nearest reliable observation, or a specified authoritative dataset — if unclear, contact Kalshi support for the contract-specific procedure.