| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed air temperature in Miami will be on March 21, 2026; it matters because overnight lows are driven by larger-scale weather patterns and can affect energy use, public-safety planning, and local outdoor activities.
Miami sits in a sub-tropical coastal climate where March is a transitional month from winter to spring, so overnight lows can swing depending on incoming cold fronts, tropical air masses, and coastal influences. Long-term warming trends, interannual modes like El Niño/La Niña, and urban heat-island effects all shape typical overnight minimums and their variability.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will occur and update as new meteorological data arrive; treat them as a real-time indicator of consensus rather than a guaranteed forecast.
Resolution typically follows the market's stated rules and commonly relies on the official meteorological observation for the Miami area (for example, the designated National Weather Service/NOAA station for the city); check this specific KALSHI event page for the exact station and dataset used.
Trading close is listed as TBD; the official lowest temperature is generally available after the 24‑hour observation period ends on March 21 once the relevant official station posts its daily observations—confirm the platform's resolution timing and any reporting window on the event page.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature bucket or discrete value as defined by the market; consult the outcome labels on the event page to see the exact temperature ranges or values that each option represents.
An unusually low overnight minimum would most likely follow a strong, dry cold frontal passage with clear skies and light northerly/offshore winds, allowing efficient radiational cooling away from warm ocean influence and minimizing cloud or onshore moderation.
Use multi‑year March climatology to understand typical variability, then layer in current-season signals such as recent forecasts for frontal frequency, ENSO phase, and short-range model guidance; remember long-term warming trends and urban heat-island effects can shift expectations compared with older historical averages.