| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest official air temperature recorded in Miami on March 20, 2026, and matters because temperature extremes affect local energy demand, transportation, and outdoor activities. It provides a way to aggregate weather-forecast information and expectations ahead of the date.
Miami has a subtropical climate with relatively mild nights in March, but occasional cold-air outbreaks and frontal passages can produce colder-than-usual minima. Seasonal transition from winter to spring, sea surface temperatures near the coast, and broader patterns such as ENSO or North American ridging/troughing influence how cold or mild nights will be on a given date.
Market odds reflect the aggregate expectation for which temperature range will be observed, and price movements typically incorporate new meteorological data and model updates. Use them as a continuously updated summary of crowd expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
Resolution will follow the official source and station specified in the market's contract text; check the event description for the designated observing station and data source (platforms commonly use the official NWS station for Miami or the station named in the contract).
It refers to the single lowest official air-temperature observation recorded at the designated station during the contract's defined observation period (the contract description will specify the exact local time window and measurement standard).
Prices can move as soon as new deterministic or ensemble model guidance, radiosonde data, satellite imagery, or surface observations clarify the timing and magnitude of a frontal passage; volatility is highest in the 48–72 hours before the event when model consensus is forming.
Traders often review climatology for late March and past anomalous cold events driven by strong continental cold air intrusions; while Miami generally has mild March nights, documented rare cold episodes provide context for low-probability cold outcomes.
Contingency resolution procedures are defined in the contract terms—typical approaches include using the nearest official station, verified corrected NWS/NCEI data, or the platform's dispute-resolution mechanism; confirm the contract's fallback rules before trading.