| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or above | 95% | 82¢ | 95¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 20% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 62° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome bins will contain Miami's lowest observed temperature on March 2, 2026. It matters because it aggregates trader expectations about short-term temperature risk relevant to weather-sensitive decisions.
Miami has a subtropical climate, so early March is typically mild, though occasional cold-air intrusions from the continental U.S. can drive temperatures lower. This market synthesizes model forecasts, observations, and local effects into a single tradable signal.
Market prices reflect the collective view of which temperature range is most likely to occur on that date and update as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as information about expectations, not guarantees of outcome.
Settlement typically uses the local 24-hour calendar date for March 2 (the local 00:00–23:59 period), but the contract's official settlement rules specify the exact time window and any daylight-saving adjustments—consult the event page for the definitive definition.
The event's settlement terms name the official observing station or dataset (often an NWS/NOAA climate station such as the Miami International Airport observation). Check the market's rules to see the specified source used for final settlement.
Contingency procedures are defined in the contract: common approaches include using the nearest official station, the nearest valid hourly report within a window, or a designated backup dataset. Review the event's settlement rules for the exact procedure.
Historical records for the designated station show the climatological baseline and typical variability for March 2, which helps set expectations; combine that baseline with current model guidance and synoptic trends to form a trading view.
Operational model runs and ensemble spread (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), NWS forecasts and advisories, surface observations, and near-term radar/satellite updates will drive price changes—especially model and observational updates within 48 hours of the target date.