| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain Miami's lowest observed air temperature on Mar 19, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-interested users who want to express views on a short-term temperature outcome for a specific calendar date.
Miami has a subtropical climate and March is a transitional month; most years produce mild nights but occasional cold frontal intrusions can push lows below typical values. Short-term synoptic patterns (cold fronts, high-pressure builds) and local factors (sea breezes, urban heat island, station siting) strongly affect overnight minima.
Market prices/odds are a snapshot of participants' collective expectations about which predefined temperature range will contain the day's minimum; use them alongside official forecasts and model guidance, not as a deterministic prediction.
Settlement will use the official minimum air temperature recorded during the local date (the 24-hour period defined by the market rules) at the observing station specified in the event's rule text; check the event page for the named station and local time window.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range (bins) listed on the event page; after the official minimum is published, the recorded value is matched to the bin that contains it and that outcome is declared the winner.
Only the single observing station named in the market rules governs settlement; nearby or auxiliary stations are not used unless the event rules explicitly allow them.
Key drivers include the approach and timing of any cold front or high-pressure build, overnight cloudiness and precipitation, wind regimes (offshore vs. onshore), and any rapid changes in sea surface temperature or persistence of an urban heat island near the station.
The market's close time and settlement announcement are specified on the event page; typically trading closes before the start of the local date and settlement is posted after the official observation and any quality-control period—consult the event rules for exact timestamps.