| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 18, 2026 will be. Outcomes matter for weather-sensitive businesses, forecasting skill assessment, and hedging short-term temperature risk.
Miami has a warm, subtropical climate where March lows are usually mild, but occasional cold fronts can produce notably cooler nights. Historical context: strong continental cold air intrusions into South Florida are uncommon but not unprecedented, and seasonal patterns (including larger-scale modes like ENSO and the polar vortex) can modulate the likelihood of cooler conditions.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about the most likely range of the minimum temperature; they should be treated as real-time forecasts rather than guarantees. Always consult the market's contract text for the official definition of the outcome and the designated measurement station used for settlement.
Settlement is based on the minimum air temperature measured during the local calendar day March 18, 2026 at the market's designated official observing station; check the contract for the exact station name, rounding rules, and the local time window used.
The contract names the official reporting station used for settlement (commonly the National Weather Service's official Miami station); traders should consult the contract text to confirm the exact station and data source.
The market close time is listed as TBD—monitor the platform for updates. Final settlement typically occurs after the designated authority publishes the official daily summary for March 18, 2026, and any additional processing time stated in the contract should be allowed.
A late-arriving cold front, unexpected clearing overnight, a shift to light offshore winds, or a sudden change in coastal sea surface temperatures can all materially lower or raise the overnight minimum compared with earlier forecasts.
Broad-scale patterns that produce cold outbreaks can be anticipated several days in advance, but important details—frontal timing, cloud cover, and nighttime cooling—typically become most reliable within 24–48 hours of the event; traders should update positions as new model runs and observations arrive.