| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will be the lowest observed in Miami on March 17, 2026. It matters because night-time temperature extremes influence energy demand, transportation, agriculture, and local planning decisions.
Miami in mid‑March sits in a transition from winter to spring; typical nights are mild but occasional cold-air intrusions from the continental interior can produce unusually cool lows. Local factors such as sea-surface temperatures, onshore flow, cloud cover, and urban heat‑island effects modulate how any broad-scale cold spell is felt at specific observing sites.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations about which temperature range will be the lowest on the specified date and change as forecasts and observations evolve. Use prices as a real-time indicator of market sentiment, and always cross-check the contract's settlement specifications and the official observational source listed for this event.
The contract will specify the official observing station and dataset used for settlement—typically an NWS/NOAA official station for the Miami area; consult the contract’s settlement terms to confirm the exact source.
The measurement period is defined in the contract (commonly the local calendar date from 00:00 to 23:59 in the local time zone as specified); check the contract text for the precise time-zone and minute definitions.
Rounding rules, bin boundaries, and tie-breaking procedures are set in the contract’s settlement rules—confirm whether values are rounded to whole degrees or tenths and how exact boundary matches are allocated.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a distinct temperature range or bin defined in the contract; the outcome whose range contains the official lowest temperature on March 17, 2026 is the winning outcome.
The market close time is listed on the market page (this event currently shows Close: TBD). Settlement takes place after the official observation for March 17, 2026 is published by the designated source—see the contract for the expected settlement timeline and any post-publication waiting period.