| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami will be on March 16, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability. The contract offers six mutually exclusive outcomes that cover possible temperature outcomes specified on the market page.
Mid‑March in Miami is a transition period: nights are often mild because of proximity to the Gulf and Atlantic, but strong cold fronts can still drive unusually cool minima. Short‑term synoptic setup (position of high and low pressure, frontal timing) combined with local effects such as sea breeze and urban heat island determine whether the overnight minimum will be cooler or warmer than typical.
Market prices summarize the collective expectations of participants about which outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations change. Use them as real‑time signals of relative likelihood, while consulting meteorological analyses for causal understanding.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the contract page; it will generally close before the observation day. Resolution occurs after the official observing network publishes the daily minimum for the specified date and station as defined in the contract rules—check the market terms for exact timing.
The contract specifies the authoritative source—typically a NOAA/NWS or airport automatic station designated on the market page. Always confirm the listed resolution dataset and station in the contract terms, since that is what will be used to settle the market.
The market rules define the exact observation window and time zone—many weather contracts use the local calendar day for the designated reporting station, but you must verify the contract’s time‑window specification on the market page.
Monitor global and regional numerical weather prediction guidance (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), high‑resolution and ensemble forecasts for frontal timing, satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation trends, and local surface observations/mesonets for real‑time temperature evolution and wind shifts.
Yes. Instrument failures, station moves or metadata errors, and post‑processing/quality control edits by the data provider can alter archived values; the market will resolve according to the official dataset and the contract’s stated rules for handling corrections.