| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will include Miami’s lowest observed temperature on March 15, 2026 — a way to trade expectations about a specific daily weather outcome. It matters for people and businesses exposed to near-term temperature risk and for observers tracking short-term climate variability.
Miami has a humid subtropical/coastal tropical climate with relatively small day‑to‑day temperature swings compared with inland locations; March is a transition month when brief cool outbreaks from the continental U.S. can still occur but extreme cold is uncommon. Weather on a single date is driven by short‑term synoptic patterns (frontal passages, surface winds) rather than long‑term climate trends, so forecasts and observations in the days immediately before March 15 will strongly influence expectations.
Market odds reflect the consensus of traders about which outcome bin will contain the day’s minimum temperature; they update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use the contract’s stated settlement rules and source to interpret market prices in terms of the actual recorded minimum.
The market’s close time is indicated on the event page (currently listed as TBD); settlement occurs based on the contract’s specified close time and the official observation for March 15, 2026. Check the market rules or contract details on the platform for the authoritative closing timestamp and time zone.
Settlement uses the specific official data source named in the contract (for example, an NWS/NOAA official station or a designated ASOS site). Consult the event’s settlement/source clause on the platform to see the exact station and dataset that will be used.
The precise definition (e.g., local calendar day 00:00–23:59, or a different 24‑hour window) is set in the contract’s settlement rules. Review the event’s definition of the measurement period and time zone to understand what observation interval determines the minimum.
The contract should specify contingency procedures for missing or questionable data, such as using a nearby official station, manual verification by the designated authority, or following a fallback rule. If you rely on this market, check those contingency rules before trading.
Historically, March in Miami is a transitional month with modest nighttime lows due to maritime influence; occasional cold pockets can occur when strong continental air masses penetrate south. Historical climatology helps set a baseline expectation, but single‑day outcomes are mainly determined by synoptic weather patterns in the days immediately preceding March 15.