| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in Miami on March 14, 2026 will be; it matters to weather-sensitive businesses, event planners, and traders who use short-term climate signals to manage risk.
March in Miami sits at the transition from winter to spring, so nights can be cool when strong cold fronts push south but are usually moderated by nearby ocean temperatures and urban effects. Single-day minima are driven more by short-term synoptic setups (cold fronts, clear calm nights) than by long-term trends, so both seasonal climatology and near-term forecasts matter.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s view of what the observed official temperature will be and will change as new forecast information and observations arrive; consult the market’s settlement rules and official observation source for the final determination.
The contract will specify the exact reporting station and dataset used for settlement; check the market’s official settlement rules — markets commonly use an NWS/NOAA-designated station within Miami city limits but the precise station name appears in the contract.
Most markets use the local calendar day as recorded by the designated station (a 24-hour period tied to the station’s local timezone), but confirm the exact start/end times and timezone in the market’s settlement definitions.
Closing time is listed as TBD on the market page; settlement typically occurs after the designated station’s official daily observations are published, and the market will announce the settlement timing in its rules or updates.
Settlement uses the single official station named in the contract, so local microclimate differences (urban heat island, proximity to water, sensor exposure) matter only insofar as they affect that station’s readings; discrepancies with other nearby sites do not change settlement unless the contract specifies multiple stations.
Historical climatology provides typical ranges and the frequency of cool nights in mid-March, which is a useful baseline, but because this is a single-day minimum, short-range synoptic forecasts (cold fronts, cloud/wind trends) will often dominate deviations from climatology—use both long-term context and current forecasts.