| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Miami on March 13, 2026 will be; it matters because daily minimums reflect short‑term weather patterns and can affect energy demand, public health, and local operations. Traders use this event to express views on how atmospheric conditions will evolve that day.
Miami has a subtropical/tropical climate, so March minimum temperatures are typically mild but can swing lower if a cold front or continental air mass reaches South Florida. Local influences such as sea surface temperatures, cloud cover, wind, and urban heat island effects also shape the overnight minimum at the official observation site. Historical variability means outcomes can be sensitive to timing and strength of synoptic features that arrive around the date.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed at the designated official station on March 13, 2026; they are not forecasts from a weather agency but aggregate participant views. Refer to the market rules for precise settlement definitions and the official data source used for final determination.
Kalshi will settle the event using the official data source and observation station specified in the event rules; check the event page or Kalshi's settlement documentation for the exact station identifier (e.g., the designated NOAA/NWS station) and data feed used.
This market has six mutually exclusive outcomes that partition possible minimum temperatures into distinct bins; the event page lists the temperature ranges or labels for each outcome and those definitions govern settlement.
Settlement occurs after the official observation for March 13, 2026 is available from the designated data source; the event rules specify the local date and time window used (typically the calendar date in the station's local time) and any timing for posting final values and closing the market.
Settlement follows the final official value as defined by Kalshi's event rules; if the data source issues post‑event adjustments, the market will be settled based on the version and timing specified in those rules, and dispute or correction procedures (if any) are detailed by Kalshi.
Watch synoptic model forecasts for frontal timing and strength, night‑time cloud cover and precipitation probabilities, surface wind trends (onshore vs offshore), and recent sea surface temperatures; short‑range numerical weather prediction and surface observations in the 48–72 hours prior will be most informative for the overnight minimum.