| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete outcomes will describe the lowest observed air temperature in Miami on March 12, 2026; it matters because traders price how meteorological drivers and recent forecasts translate into a specific daily minimum. Markets like this aggregate information from forecasts, climatology, and real‑time observations.
Miami sits in a subtropical coastal zone where March is a seasonal transition: nights are typically mild but can be punctuated by cool spells when cold fronts penetrate far enough south. Short‑term synoptic patterns (frontal passages, upper‑level troughs), local sea‑breeze and urban effects, and cloud/precipitation conditions all influence that single‑day minimum. This event uses an official observing station and a published data source for settlement.
Market odds represent the collective market view of which outcome is most likely given current information — they synthesize weather models, recent observations, and participant expectations. Use odds as a real‑time signal, not a guarantee, and consult the contract's settlement rules and the underlying observational source before trading.
The event page currently lists the market close as TBD; the platform will display the official close time once set. In many weather markets trading stops either at a listed close time or shortly before the observation window begins, so check the event page for the final timetable.
Settlement will use the specific observing station and authoritative data source named in the contract rules — typically an official NOAA/NWS reporting site for the Miami area (for example, the Miami International Airport station), so review the contract text to confirm the exact source.
It is defined as the minimum official air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated station, based on the official hourly or automated observations specified in the contract.
The outcome is determined after the designated data provider publishes its official observations and after the platform processes settlement; timing depends on that provider's publication schedule and the platform's verification procedures, so expect settlement from the same day up to several days afterward.
Consider Miami's subtropical climate and that March is transitional: most years have mild to warm nights but occasional cold frontal intrusions can produce notably cooler lows. Look at multi‑year climatology for March, recent seasonal trends, and the frequency of late‑winter cold snaps in South Florida to put current forecasts in context.