| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or above | 95% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will register as the lowest observed temperature in the Miami area on March 11, 2026. It matters because small variations in temperature can affect energy demand, travel, and local weather-sensitive operations in a coastal subtropical city.
March is a seasonal transition month in South Florida when cold fronts from the continental U.S. can produce brief cool spells, but sustained cold is uncommon in Miami. Historical lows for any single day reflect a mix of synoptic-scale patterns, local sea surface temperatures, and urban microclimates, so context from recent weeks and model trends matters.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about which temperature range will be the observed minimum and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use the market as a real-time measure of collective belief about the lowest temperature, not as a guarantee of the final reading.
The market’s resolution rules specify the exact observing station or dataset used to settle the outcome; commonly this is an official National Weather Service or ASOS station designated for the Miami area. Check the event details or dispute resolution notes on the market page to confirm the exact source before trading.
Resolution is typically tied to the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the designated observing site, but you should confirm the market’s stated timezone and inclusive time window in its rules section.
Official measurements usually come from standard meteorological sensors: air temperature measured at roughly 1.5–2 meters in a sheltered enclosure or from calibrated ASOS instruments. The exact instrument and protocol used for settlement will be defined by the market’s resolution source.
Yes — urban heat island effects, nearby water bodies, and local land-use differences can produce notable temperature differences across short distances, which is why the event’s choice of official observing station matters for the settled result.
Traders typically monitor deterministic and ensemble model runs for frontal timing, short-range observations (radiosondes, surface networks), satellite and radar trends, surface wind forecasts, and sea surface temperature anomalies — all of which influence overnight minimum temperature expectations.