| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the lowest observed in Miami on March 10, 2026; it matters to weather-sensitive businesses, event planners, and traders hedging temperature risk.
Miami has a subtropical climate, and early March typically sits between late-winter cool spells and spring warmth, so minimums are often mild but can dip when cold air intrudes. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by short-term synoptic patterns and local effects, while long-term warming trends shift the baseline distribution of possible lows.
Market prices aggregate public forecasts and private information about which temperature bin is most likely; treat prices as a real-time summary of available information that will update as new meteorological data arrives.
The contract's resolution rules on the event page specify the official data source and station; check those rules — many weather contracts use the official NWS/NOAA station for Miami or the listed airport ASOS/AWOS as the authoritative source.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range defined in the market contract; consult the event description on the platform for the precise bounds and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
Dates for location-specific weather markets typically refer to the local calendar date (Eastern Time for Miami) and the 00:00–23:59 local observation period used by the specified station — confirm the exact window in the market rules.
Resolution generally follows the official, quality-controlled dataset and the platform's correction/dispute policy; many contracts allow final resolution to reflect post-event adjustments published by the official source within a stated time window.
Updates to numerical weather models (operational runs and ensembles), shifts in frontal timing, changing sea surface or local mesoscale conditions, and new observation data will drive reassessments and price movement as the date approaches.