| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded at the Miami International Airport weather station for April 3, 2026. It allows participants to hedge against or speculate on specific climate outcomes for a date characterized by the transition from spring to early summer.
April in Miami marks the end of the dry season and the beginning of warming trends, though the region remains susceptible to late-season cold fronts from the north. Historically, daily lows during this period are influenced by coastal proximity, prevailing wind directions, and the intensity of high-pressure systems. Meteorological data from the National Weather Service provides the definitive record for these historical temperature trends.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of the minimum temperature falling into specific ranges. Higher prices suggest a stronger market consensus for a particular temperature bracket.
The official daily minimum temperature is determined by the National Weather Service recordings specifically at the Miami International Airport station.
In the event of station data unavailability, secondary official sources or National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) verified reports are typically used to determine the final settlement value.
No, the market is strictly based on the actual ambient air temperature recorded by the thermometer, not heat index or wind chill factors.
The outcome is based on the lowest temperature reached during the 24-hour calendar day of April 3, 2026, regardless of when that minimum occurs.
Extreme weather events, such as unseasonal storms or fronts, are primary drivers for market volatility and are factored into the historical climate patterns tracked by the market.