| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 87% | 84¢ | 88¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 11% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026 will be and is relevant for weather-sensitive planning and short-term risk management.
Los Angeles contains a wide range of microclimates — coastal areas, inland valleys, and higher elevations often experience very different nighttime lows. Outcomes for a single date like March 9 are driven by synoptic-scale patterns (cold fronts, high-pressure ridges, or offshore winds) as well as local effects such as urban heat island and radiational cooling; the market will settle to the official observation source specified in the contract.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders based on available forecasts and observations and will update as new meteorological information arrives; they indicate relative market expectation, not a guarantee of outcome.
The market contract defines the observation period (for example, a 00:00–23:59 local time window at the specified station); check the market's settlement rules to see the precise time window used for this event.
The contract's settlement source names the official reporting station or dataset that will be used (for example, a National Weather Service/NOAA station or other specified observing site); consult the market rules to identify the exact source.
The contract specifies time conventions for settlement; typically observations are interpreted in the local time of the designated station, and the rules will state how any daylight saving transitions are treated.
The market settles to the single official source named in the contract; if multiple sources exist, the settlement rules describe tie-breakers or the authoritative dataset used and the platform's dispute process if needed.
Unusually low lows are most often produced by clear skies with strong radiational cooling, cold-air advection behind Pacific cold fronts, and occasionally strong offshore (downslope) flow that channels colder inland air into parts of the basin, with local elevation and urban effects modulating the magnitude.