| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or above | 93% | 91¢ | 94¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 8% | 2¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 50° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $601 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the lowest observed in Los Angeles on March 8, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive users because overnight low temperatures influence energy demand, transportation, and event planning.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with typically mild March nights, but interannual variability is driven by Pacific storm systems, onshore marine influence, and occasional inland cold-air intrusions. Local factors such as elevation, urban heat island effects, and proximity to the ocean create substantial differences between coastal and inland observation sites.
Market prices aggregate traders' views and incoming weather information; they update as forecasts, observations, and risk sentiment change and should be treated as a real-time consensus signal rather than a guarantee of the final observed temperature.
The event’s resolution source and official observing station should be specified in the market rules on the event page; if the station is not listed there, consult the event details or contact KALSHI support to confirm which official NWS/NOAA or local observing site will be used.
DST begins in the U.S. on March 8, 2026, which can change local timestamps for observations; check the market rules to see whether times are interpreted in local standard time, local DST, or UTC and how the organizer defines the calendar day for resolution.
Resolution timing depends on the chosen official data source and the market’s stated rules — some markets resolve once preliminary hourly observations are posted (often within hours), while others wait for finalized daily climate reports; consult the event page for the exact resolution policy.
Proximity to the Pacific and the strength of the marine layer keep coastal areas warmer at night, while inland valleys cool faster due to weaker marine influence, lower humidity, and radiational cooling; elevation and urbanization also modify local minima.
Monitor short-range forecast model runs, hourly surface observations (METARs) from relevant LA-area stations, radar and satellite for clouds/precipitation, NWS forecast updates, and any reports of winds (onshore or offshore) that can rapidly change overnight temperature trends.