| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or above | 98% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 2% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 7, 2026 will be. It matters to traders who use weather outcomes to hedge or speculate and to anyone tracking short-term weather risks for energy, events, or travel planning.
Late-winter temperatures in the Los Angeles area vary widely across coastal, urban, and inland microclimates; synoptic-scale features (cold fronts, troughs, or offshore Santa Ana winds) can produce very different lows on a single date. Historical context: California winters have shown interannual variability driven by Pacific patterns, and local factors like urban heat islands and marine influence shape city-scale minima.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of participants based on available forecasts and observations; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a consensus signal, not a guaranteed outcome, and check the market's stated resolution source and rules before trading.
The market will resolve to the official data source named on the event page; check the market description for the specific station or reporting agency (for example, an NWS/NOAA station or specified local observation site) because only that source will be used for settlement.
Resolution will typically use the local calendar day for March 7, 2026 (midnight to 23:59 local time as defined by the market's rules); confirm the exact time convention on the event page because exchanges specify local time handling in their resolution policy.
Official sites such as National Weather Service/NOAA automated stations, cooperative observer stations, and airport ASOS stations are common resolution sources; inland valley or higher-elevation stations within the city limits often record lower minima than coastal stations.
Clear skies, calm winds, low humidity, and strong radiational cooling overnight favor colder minima; conversely, cloud cover, onshore marine layer, and breezy conditions tend to keep nighttime temperatures higher.
The exchange's resolution policy governs missing or erroneous data — common approaches include using a designated backup data source, applying quality-controlled reanalysis, or manual adjudication; check the event page for the stated fallback procedures and contact platform support if the resolution is unclear.