| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $970 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles will be on March 6, 2026. Results matter for short-term planning in transportation, outdoor events, energy demand, and agricultural or health-related preparations.
Early March in Los Angeles sits on the transition between cool winter patterns and milder spring conditions; nights can be influenced by Pacific storms, cold inland air masses, or warm offshore winds. Interannual variability (for example, broader-scale climate drivers and recent seasonal trends) and local microclimates across the Los Angeles basin both affect overnight low temperatures.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and reflect how new data (forecast model runs, official observations, or changing synoptic conditions) shifts expectations about the lowest temperature on that date. Use market signals alongside meteorological forecasts and station observations rather than as a standalone weather forecast.
The market's contract specifies the resolution source and exact station or data feed used to determine the official lowest temperature; check the event page or contract rules for that authoritative source (commonly an official National Weather Service/NOAA station or designated local observing site).
Each listed outcome corresponds to a discrete temperature bin or labeled value defined on the event page; the outcome labels on the market show the exact ranges or values that will be used for resolution, so review those labels to understand how observed temperatures map to outcomes.
Trading will close at the time set by the market operator (currently listed as TBD), and resolution occurs after the official observation for March 6 has been published by the contract's designated data source, allowing for any routine quality-control or reporting delays specified in the rules.
Monitor short-range model runs (00–72 hour forecasts), National Weather Service forecasts for the Los Angeles area, and overnight surface observations from the designated resolution station; pay particular attention to changes in cloud cover, wind direction, and timing of frontal passages in the 48 hours leading up to March 6.
Yes—consult climatological normals and historical daily low-temperature records for early March at the market's designated station (available via NOAA/NWS or local climate summaries) and recent seasonal lows in the Los Angeles basin to understand typical variability and past extremes.