| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 4% | 3¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 95% | 85¢ | 94¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 47° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which recorded low temperature will be observed in Los Angeles on March 5, 2026; it matters because it aggregates real-time expectations about a specific, observable weather outcome that can be compared to forecasts and historical patterns.
Los Angeles has strong day-to-day variability in early March driven by shifting Pacific weather systems, onshore marine influence, and local microclimates; historically, overnight lows in the region respond quickly to frontal passages, cloud cover, and wind regime. Markets like this translate meteorological forecasts, official observations, and trader beliefs into a single, tradable view of that specific day's low temperature.
Market prices reflect the community’s aggregated expectations and the balance of buying and selling interest; interpret them as a dynamic summary of current information, not a guaranteed outcome.
The market settlement follows the specific data source and station listed in the contract rules—typically an official National Weather Service or airport observation site—so check the event page for the designated reporting station and dataset.
The contract rules specify the exact time window and time zone used for measurement (commonly the local calendar date from 00:00 to 23:59 at the chosen station); consult those rules to confirm the observation interval.
The event shows 'Closes: TBD'; settlement typically occurs after the designated station publishes its official daily summary or the dataset specified in the contract, and timing is governed by the market’s settlement policy.
Because lows vary across coastal, valley, and inland neighborhoods, the chosen observation site matters—coastal stations are moderated by the ocean while inland/valley sites cool more at night, so outcomes reflect the site specified in the market rules.
Some official datasets undergo post-event QC and revisions; the contract rules state whether settlement uses preliminary reports or final, revised values, so check those rules to know if later adjustments are admissible.