| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the single lowest air temperature recorded for Los Angeles will be on March 4, 2026; it matters to traders who want to express views on short-term weather risk and to users hedging weather-sensitive exposures. Local minimum temperatures can affect energy demand, city operations, and event planning.
Los Angeles has strong microclimate variability: coastal sites are moderated by the Pacific while inland valleys and higher elevations experience wider temperature swings. Early March is a transitional month climatologically, with possible cool nights after radiational cooling or colder air mass passages and warmer nights if offshore (Santa Ana) winds or marine inversion occur. Historical lows differ substantially by observation site, so the precise station and settlement rules are central to interpreting outcomes.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about the settled observation from the official source named in the market rules; consult the event page for the exact station, observation window, and data provider to map prices to real-world scenarios. Prices should be read as the market's consensus view about which outcome will be the settled minimum, not as a forecast guarantee.
The market will settle to the official observation specified in the event rules; that typically means the lowest reported air temperature from the named official station during the local date of March 4, 2026. Check the market page for the exact station ID, reporting network, and definition of the observation window.
Settlement normally uses an established meteorological data provider listed in the contract (for example, an NWS/NOAA station, ASOS/METAR at a specified airport, or another named official weather station). The market details identify the authoritative source that will be used for settlement.
The market close time is shown on the event page (currently TBD); settlement occurs after the official data for March 4, 2026 are available from the named source. Refer to the event page and the platform’s settlement policy for exact post-observation timing and any contest rules about data revisions.
Microclimates mean coastal, central, valley, and hillside locations can have very different minimums on the same night. Because the market settles to a single specified station or aggregated definition, knowing which station is used is crucial—traders should align their view to that station’s typical climatology rather than a general ‘Los Angeles’ impression.
Watch short-range model runs and forecasts for frontal passages, upper-level troughs, cloud cover, humidity, wind direction (onshore vs offshore), and any forecasted Santa Ana conditions. Also monitor official forecast discussions from local NWS offices and real-time observations from the settlement station for the most relevant, actionable information.