| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or above | 95% | 93¢ | 95¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 5% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $947 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the lowest recorded in Los Angeles on March 3, 2026; it matters for short-term weather risk management, event planning, and local energy demand forecasting. Market prices aggregate trader views about meteorology and observational outcomes for that date.
Los Angeles has strong microclimates that drive large differences between coastal, valley, and inland temperatures; early March is a transitional month when both mild marine influence and episodic cool troughs are possible. Historical extremes are uncommon but not impossible, so forecasts and on-the-ground observations leading up to the date are the main drivers of market movements.
Prices in this market reflect the collective expectation of which predefined temperature outcome will be realized and will update as operational forecasts and observations change; consult the market's settlement rules to see which official observation will determine the winning outcome.
The market will settle to the official temperature observation specified in the market's settlement rules; check the event page for the designated station and time window that will be used to determine the lowest recorded temperature.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature bucket listed on the market page; review the event description to see the exact numeric ranges or labels that define those outcomes.
Short- and medium-range numerical weather models, National Weather Service forecasts and observations, surface station reports from the designated settlement site, and updated satellite and sounding data are the primary inputs that traders react to.
Most markets settle to a single official station or dataset defined in their rules; microclimate differences mean the realized minimum at that station can differ from temperatures elsewhere in the city, so confirm which station is used before trading.
Synoptic changes can alter expectations several days out, with the largest revisions typically occurring 1–3 days before the date as high-resolution models and observations refine timing and intensity.