| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 28, 2026 will be; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy load forecasting, and traders who trade on short-term weather outcomes.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with strong coastal influence, but nightly lows around late March can vary due to marine layers, synoptic systems, or offshore wind events. Seasonal transition means both cool Pacific troughs and warm offshore episodes are plausible, and forecast skill improves as the date approaches.
Market odds aggregate participating traders' beliefs and incoming forecast information; they update as new model runs, observations, and news arrive and should be read as the market's consensus view at a given time rather than a fixed physical forecast.
The governing data source and station are specified in the market's resolution rules; if not visible on the market page, consult the event rules or contact KALSHI support. Exchanges commonly use National Weather Service or airport ASOS/AWOS observations as the authoritative source.
The date normally refers to the local calendar day (midnight to midnight local time) for the designated observing station; the official daily minimum within that 24-hour window, as reported by the chosen data source, will be used for resolution per the market rules.
Use short-range numerical model outputs, local forecast discussions, and recent observations for the 24–72 hours before the date because forecast skill improves closer to the event; monitor ensemble spreads and official NWS updates to assess uncertainty.
Late March is a transitional month: coastal nights tend to be mild due to the ocean, but cool Pacific intrusions and occasional warm offshore events create sizable variability. Historical patterns provide context for plausibility but do not determine the outcome for this specific date.
Resolution timing follows the exchange's rules and typically occurs after the official observing agency posts the daily observations for March 28, 2026; final results and settlement details will be posted on the market page once the exchange verifies the designated data source.