| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will correspond to the lowest observed temperature in Los Angeles on March 27, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive decision makers and traders who want to hedge or express views on short-term temperature risk.
Late March in Los Angeles sits in a seasonal transition where temperatures can swing from mild to unusually cool depending on Pacific storm systems, upper-level troughs, and local coastal effects. Day-to-day lows are influenced by both synoptic-scale weather and local factors like marine layers and urban/inland differences; the market encodes these possibilities into discrete outcome buckets.
Market prices reflect the aggregate of participants' expectations and evolve as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as a dynamic signal about consensus expectations and consult official forecasts and station data for operational decisions.
Settlement is determined by the market's official settlement source and rules—check the event page on the platform for the designated meteorological station, observing authority, and measurement method that will be used.
The relevant 24-hour window is specified in the market rules; many weather markets use the local calendar day (midnight-to-midnight) at the designated station, but you should confirm the exact observation window on the event page.
The event page lists the exact numeric thresholds or ranges for each of the six outcomes; those definitions are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive for settlement—review them on the market listing before trading.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event summary—monitor the market page for updates. Platforms typically enforce a trading cutoff before settlement; consult the event rules for exact trading and settlement cutoffs.
Compare the outcome ranges to official historical daily minima from the same observation station (e.g., NWS/NOAA or local airport station) to account for station-specific baselines and long-term trends; historical context helps interpret whether an outcome would be unusually low for that date.