| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Los Angeles during March 26, 2026 will be. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, short-term hedging, and understanding near-term climate variability in a major population center.
Late March in Los Angeles sits between cool-season variability and warm-season trends: nights can be influenced by the Pacific marine layer, passing frontal systems, or offshore wind events. Official observations from the national weather network and local automated stations are normally used to record daily minima; microclimates across the metropolitan area can produce substantial differences between sites.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectation about the most likely observed minimum and will change as forecasts, model runs, and real-world observations arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast.
The market’s settlement source is defined in the event rules on the trading page; if a specific station or dataset is not listed there, the market administrator will specify an official observing network (typically an NWS/NOAA reporting station or recognized local climatological site) and that source will be used for settlement.
Unless the event rules state otherwise, "on March 26, 2026" refers to the local calendar date in Los Angeles (00:00 through 23:59 local time). The market’s settlement documentation will note whether local time or UTC conversions are used and how overnight observations are attributed to a date.
The market close time is listed as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the official observing network publishes the daily observations and any contestability window or adjudication period in the market rules has passed. Check the event page for updates to the close and settlement timeline.
Forecast updates (numerical model runs, satellite/upper-air observations, and short-range forecasts) change trader expectations and thus market prices; sudden shifts—like a late-arriving front or development of an offshore wind event—can move market consensus quickly in the days and hours before the target date.
Settlement procedures for ties, station discrepancies, and rounding are specified in the event’s rules: common approaches include using the single designated reporting station, following the reporting conventions of the designated dataset (e.g., official rounding rules), or applying a predefined tie-breaking protocol—refer to the event’s settlement terms for the exact method.