| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will represent the lowest observed temperature in Los Angeles on March 25, 2026, as defined by the contract. It matters because traders synthesize forecasts and observations into a market price that signals collective expectations about that day's minimum temperature.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with large microclimate differences between coastal areas, inland valleys, and higher terrain; March is a transitional month when either mild marine influence or late-season cool storms can set the overnight low. Year-to-year variability is influenced by large-scale patterns (e.g., troughs or ridges aloft, large-scale climate modes) and local effects such as the marine layer and offshore winds.
Market prices reflect the aggregate information and beliefs of traders, moving as new forecast models, observations, and local reports arrive; interpret prices as a real-time summary of market consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
The event page shows the close time (here listed as TBD); settlement generally occurs after official observations for March 25, 2026 are published by the designated data source and after any platform-specified review window.
The contract's event description on the platform specifies the official station or data product used for settlement; check the KALSHI event page for the exact source (platforms commonly reference official NWS/ASOS stations such as the LAX observation site when specified).
It refers to the single lowest valid observation during the local calendar date of March 25, 2026 at the designated observation location, in the units and rounding conventions stated in the contract; any special handling (e.g., sensor errors) is governed by the platform's settlement rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a discrete temperature value or a temperature range as defined on the market page; review the event listing to see the exact buckets or values and how each will settle.
New numerical model runs, upper-air observations that alter the forecast track or strength of Pacific systems, changes in expected onshore or offshore wind patterns, and real-time surface observations (satellite, buoy, station reports) can all prompt rapid price updates in the final 72 hours.