| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the minimum air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 23, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders who use near-term temperature outcomes to hedge risk or express short-term weather views.
Los Angeles has a variable spring climate influenced by Pacific systems, coastal marine layers, and occasional offshore winds; late March sits in a transition period when both cool storms and mild, dry patterns are possible. Short-range numerical weather prediction, satellite/observational updates, and local microclimates all shape the expected overnight low for a single calendar day.
Market odds represent the collective assessment of participants given available forecasts and observations and can change as new model runs and real-time data arrive. Use market movement together with independent weather data to track changing expectations ahead of the observation window.
The contract specifies the designated observing station and measurement standard; participants should check the event's contract or platform rules. If the contract refers to an official climate source, that source's standard meteorological station (as defined by the platform) will be used to determine the recorded minimum.
Unless the contract states otherwise, dates are measured in local Los Angeles time (Pacific Time), typically from 00:00 to 23:59 local time. Confirm the exact observation window on the event page or rulebook in case a different period is specified.
Resolution occurs after the designated observing authority publishes the official daily temperature for the specified station; the platform will post the outcome and resolution details once that official data is available. Check the event page and platform notifications for the timing of resolution.
Arrival of a Pacific cold front, persistence or breakdown of the coastal marine layer, an offshore wind event (which tends to warm nights), sudden cloud changes overnight, and localized precipitation or fog are the primary drivers that can raise or lower the overnight minimum.
Track short-range model ensembles and successive model runs for changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, and wind; monitor real-time obs (coastal stations, inland sensors, satellite and radar) for verifying model trends. Because overnight lows are sensitive to small changes in cloud and wind, give greater weight to recent high-resolution runs and current observational trends as the date approaches.