| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 22, 2026 will be; outcomes are useful for people and businesses that plan around daily temperature extremes, such as energy managers, event planners, and farmers.
Late March in Los Angeles sits near the transition between cool-season variability and spring warming, so single-day minima can swing with passing storms, marine-layer persistence, or offshore wind events. Long-term warming trends have shifted average conditions, but day-to-day minima remain driven by short-term synoptic and local processes.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about which temperature range will be observed and update as new model runs, observations, and official reports arrive. Treat prices as dynamic signals reflecting current forecast confidence and available observational data.
The market will settle to the official observation specified in its settlement terms; typically that means a designated NWS/NOAA reporting station or other specified dataset and time window. Consult the event's settlement rules to see the exact station and reporting interval used.
Close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement occurs after the designated official observation for March 22, 2026 is published according to the market's timeline. Check the event page and settlement rules for updates on closing and settlement timing.
Late-March minima respond to synoptic-scale patterns (coastal storms versus high-pressure ridging), local sea-breeze or onshore flow that maintains a cool marine layer, and any offshore wind events that limit cooling; local topography and urban heat island effects also modulate the minimum at specific sites.
High-resolution short-range NWP model runs, deterministic and ensemble guidance (e.g., regional and global models), local NWS forecast discussions, satellite imagery of the marine layer, and real-time METAR/mesonet observations from Los Angeles-area stations are particularly useful.
Participants include weather forecasters, energy and commodity traders, businesses with temperature exposure, and local residents. Interpret market moves as collective responses to new forecast runs, observations, and official reports; corroborate with independent forecast products and the event's settlement definition before acting.