| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which of six outcomes will represent the lowest air temperature observed in Los Angeles on March 21, 2026. It matters to planners and market participants who hedge weather-sensitive operations and to people tracking seasonal and short-term temperature variability.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers; late March is a transitional period when both cool Pacific systems and early warm spells can occur. Day-to-day low temperatures are driven by synoptic-scale patterns, coastal processes, and local effects such as elevation and urban heat retention, while long-term climate trends shift baseline conditions over years.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of participants about which temperature outcome is most likely, integrating current forecasts and incoming observations; traders should treat odds as a dynamic signal that updates as new meteorological information arrives.
The event will settle using the official settlement source listed on the market page; that is typically an official NOAA/NWS station or a specified consolidated dataset—check the event's settlement rules to see the designated station(s).
The relevant period is the local Los Angeles calendar day unless the event page specifies otherwise; in practice that means 00:00 to 23:59 local time (Pacific Daylight Time for this date), but confirm the market's stated time window.
Different neighborhoods and elevations can record very different overnight lows; whether those differences matter depends on whether the market uses a single official station, multiple stations, or an aggregated measure—see the settlement source on the event page.
Some markets use preliminary observations while others use final quality-controlled values; consult the market's settlement policy to know whether post-event revisions can alter the outcome.
The creator chose six outcome bins to span the plausible range of lowest temperatures for that date; the event page lists the specific temperature ranges or labels associated with each of the six outcomes—review those descriptions before trading.