| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome corresponds to the lowest observed air temperature in Los Angeles on March 20, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health planning, and local operations.
Los Angeles sits at the junction of coastal marine influences, inland valleys, and foothill microclimates, so daily low temperatures can vary substantially across the metro area and by observation site. Seasonal transition in March means outcomes can be influenced by passing Pacific systems, persistent marine layers, or offshore wind events rather than by long-term climate trends alone.
Market prices reflect aggregated participant expectations about which outcome will be true on the specified observation date; they update as new weather forecasts and observations arrive. For contractual resolution details and final settlement rules, refer to the event’s official contract text on the platform.
The precise definition (including measurement site, instrument, units, and observation window) is specified in the market’s contract. Typically it refers to the minimum official air temperature recorded at the named observation site during the local calendar day, but you should consult the contract text for the authoritative resolution criteria.
The event contract names the authoritative data source(s) — for example, a specific NOAA/NWS station, ASOS/automated station, or other designated dataset. If multiple sources or fallback rules apply, they will be listed in the contract.
Observation windows (local start and end times) and time zone conventions are defined in the market contract. Markets commonly use the local calendar day (midnight to midnight local time) at the specified station, but verify the contract to confirm.
Resolution procedures for missing or provisional data are set out in the contract; typical approaches include using the nearest reliable station, applying official provisional data procedures, or delaying resolution until validated data are available. Check the contract for the exact fallback and adjudication rules.
Tie-breaking, rounding rules, and treatment of boundary values are specified in the contract. Some contracts round to the nearest unit, others use strict inequalities; read the settlement rules in the event description to see how ties and boundaries are resolved.